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gold price forecast gold continues to see 2400 as trouble
May 16, 2024 10:40 PM +07:00

Pipscollector.com - The gold market continues to see the $2400 level as a major barrier to continuing the gains in this market. However, it is most certainly a market that can’t be shorted, and at this point, should be a “buy on the dips” scenario.


Gold Markets Technical Analysis

The gold market rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday to hit the $2,400 level. The $2,400 level is an area that previously has seen a pretty significant barrier. The $2,400 level being broken to the upside opens up the possibility of the market going to the $2,500 level, perhaps even higher than that.

At this point though, it would not surprise me at all to see a little bit of a pullback, mainly due to the fact that we have gotten a little stretched. A pullback could look like the gold market dropping all the way down to the $2,300 level, which is the bottom of the most recent pullback. We also have the 50-day EMA hanging around in the same area, and therefore I think it is more or less a hard floor at the moment.

Gold price drops and pressure from the market

Short-term pullbacks will more likely than not be a scenario where we can get a little bit of a buy on the dip mentality of most traders around the world. Keep in mind that the gold market is being stepped into by central banks as they’ve been accumulating for some time. The gold market is also highly sensitive to the interest rate situation around the world. So, pay attention to that. And at this point in time, it just looks like we are continuing the overall upward pressure, but I don’t necessarily want to chase right into this resistance.

If we get a daily close that is significantly above $2,400, then fine, I will jump in, but I think you probably get a little bit of a pullback here to offer some value, especially as may wish to take their profit later on on Thursday and into early Friday, we’ll just have to wait and see. Either way, selling gold isn’t even a thought.

Quote source: Fxstreet

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bitcoin btc news today trump crypto plug eye 52 million as spot etf flows wane
May 9, 2024 6:38 PM +07:00

Key Points:

  • Bitcoin (BTC) declined by 1.96% on Wednesday (May 8), closing the session at $61,141.
  • US BTC-spot ETF flow data, increasing SEC scrutiny of the crypto market, and FOMC member chatter impacted buyer demand for BTC.
  • FOMC member chatter, SEC activity, and US BTC-spot ETF market flow data need consideration on Thursday (May 9).


US BTC-Spot ETF Market Flows and FOMC Member Chatter

Bitcoin (BTC) declined by 1.96% on Wednesday (May 8). Following a 1.31% loss on Tuesday (May 7), BTC ended the session at $61,141.

US BTC-spot ETF market flow data for Tuesday (May 7) set the tone for the Wednesday (May 8) session. According to Farside Investors.

  • The US BTC-spot ETF market saw total net outflows of $15.7 million on Tuesday after total net inflows of $217.0 million on Monday (May 6).
  • Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw net outflows of $28.6 million.
  • iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and six other issuers reported zero net flows for Tuesday.
  • Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF (BTCO) registered the highest inflows on Tuesday, just $6.0 million.

Net outflows and hawkish FOMC member commentary were price-negative for BTC and the broader crypto market. On Wednesday, FOMC member Susan Collins discussed the US economy and inflation. The Boston Fed President said the economy needed cooling to return inflation to the 2% target. The comments suggested a higher-for-longer rate path to tackle sticky inflation.

BTC-spot ETF market conditions improved modestly on Wednesday amidst increasing uncertainty about a September Fed rate cut.

According to preliminary numbers from Farside Investors,

  • Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) reported zero net flows on Wednesday (May 8).
  • Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) saw net inflows of $11.5 million.
  • Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund and six other issuers reported zero net flows for Wednesday.
  • Excluding flow data for iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Valkyrie Bitcoin Fund (BRRR), the US BTC-spot ETF market saw total net inflows of $11.5 million.

Former President Donald Trump Targets the US Crypto Vote

While the US crypto market faces increasing SEC scrutiny, former US President Donald Trump plugged cryptos. On Wednesday, Fox Business Reporter Eleanor Terrett covered the story, posting,

“I think this is the first time Donald Trump has openly endorsed (or even publicly spoken about) “crypto” instead of just Bitcoin. He even mentioned Gensler.”

Trump reportedly said,

“If you like crypto in any form…and it comes in many forms…if you’re in favor of crypto, you better vote Trump.”

The US crypto community could be a significant voter pool for Trump. In 2023, Coinbase kickstarted the StandWithCrypto campaign in Washington to raise crypto awareness on Capitol Hill. According to the campaign highlights, 52 million Americans own crypto.

Trump’s crypto plug highlighted the likely impact of the US Presidential Election on the crypto market. A Republican Party victory could end the SEC’s reign of regulation through enforcement.

The SEC may also have to reconsider its ongoing cases against crypto firms, including Coinbase (COIN), Kraken, and Robinhood (HOOD). A Trump win may also end SEC plans to appeal against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling.

A crypto market-friendly Whitehouse could raise the prospects of an ETH-spot ETF market and even an XRP-spot ETF market.

Despite likely delays to launching an ETH-spot ETF, Grayscale remained optimistic about the SEC approving ETH-spot ETFs.

Grayscale Thinks the SEC Will Do the Right Thing on ETH-Spot ETFs

On Tuesday (May 7), SEC Chair Gary Gensler skirted a question if Ethereum (ETH) is a commodity or security and if there will one day be an ETH-spot ETF.

Nevertheless, on Wednesday (May 8), co-founder of ETF Institute Nate Geraci quoted from an interview about ETH-spot ETFs with Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenshein, who reportedly said,

Optimistic that the SEC will do the right thing by investors.”

ETH declined by 1.06% on Wednesday (May 8), ending the session at $2,976.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC sat below the 50-day EMA while holding comfortably above the 200-day EMA, confirming the bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price trends.

A BTC break above the 50-day EMA and the $64,000 resistance level would support a move to the $69,000 resistance level. A breakout from the $69,000 resistance level would give the bulls a run at the $73,808 all-time high.

On Thursday (May 9), SEC activity, BTC-spot ETF market flow data, and Fed speakers need consideration.

Conversely, a BTC fall through the $60,365 support level could bring sub-$58,000 levels into play.

With a 43.31 14-Daily RSI reading, BTC could drop below the $58,000 handle before entering oversold territory.


Ethereum Analysis

ETH hovered below the 50-day EMA while remaining above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs affirmed the bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.

An ETH break above the $3,033 resistance level could give the bulls a run at the 50-day EMA and the $3,244 resistance level.

Conversely, an ETH fall through the $2,900 handle could signal a drop to the 200-day EMA.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading of 41.33 suggests an ETH fall to the 200-day EMA before entering oversold territory.


Quote source: Fxstreet

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gold prices forecast firm amid middle east tensions us economic strength
April 19, 2024 4:28 PM +07:00

Key Points:

  • Gold rises, influenced by Middle East unrest and strong U.S. data.
  • Federal Reserve policies impact gold and dollar values significantly.
  • Central banks continue to purchase gold, stabilizing prices.


XAU/USD Edging Higher in Cautious Trade

Gold prices rose on Monday, influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and strong U.S. economic indicators. Despite gains in the dollar and Treasury yields, gold maintained its status as a safe haven, even as central bank activities and Federal Reserve policies significantly impact market expectations.

Geopolitical Impact on Gold Prices

The recent missile and drone attack by Iran on Israel, the first such aggression in over three decades, has stoked fears of an extended regional conflict, pushing investors towards the safety of gold. This movement aligns with expert analyses that point to the geopolitical situation as a key driver of the current rise in gold prices.

U.S. Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Stance

March saw U.S. retail sales exceed expectations, indicating a robust economy. This development has adjusted market expectations about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies, with fewer rate cuts now anticipated by year-end. Comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the necessity for maintaining restrictive monetary policies, influencing both the dollar’s strength and investor strategies.

Central Bank Influence

Ongoing purchases by central banks have bolstered gold prices, demonstrating a strategic approach to gold reserves despite its high price. This sustained buying indicates that central banks are likely to continue supporting the market regardless of price fluctuations.

Short-term Market Forecast

While geopolitical premiums might decrease, causing gold prices to dip towards $2,200 in the near term, the overall market sentiment towards gold remains positive.

The continuous strategic buying by central banks and the enduring restrictive monetary policy stance of the U.S. Federal Reserve are expected to support gold prices. The market is poised for a bullish trend, underpinned by lasting global uncertainties and central banks’ unwavering interest in gold as a strategic asset.

Technical Analysis


Gold (XAU/USD) is higher on Wednesday, suggesting traders may be gearing up for a test of last week’s record high at $2431.59. A trade through this level will signal the resumption of the uptrend.

On the downside, the nearest support is a pair of minor bottoms at $2324.25 and $2319.39. This area could be the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside.

The daily chart indicates there is plenty of room to the downside under $2319.39 with the best target and support the 50-day moving average at $2126.69.

Quote source: Fxstreet

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silver xag daily forecast poised for gain amid fed cuts 29 target in view
April 11, 2024 11:17 PM +07:00

Key Points:

  • Silver eyes $29 as US Fed rate cut speculation and Middle East tensions boost safe-haven appeal.
  • Anticipation of US CPI data influences silver prices, with potential rate cut driving investor interest.
  • Silver maintains bullish trend above $27.60, technical analysis predicts continued upward momentum.


Market Overview

Silver prices have extended their winning streak and remained well bid around just above $28 level. However, the surge in silver prices can be attributed to a combination of factors, including speculation surrounding US Federal Reserve policy, geopolitical tensions, and upcoming US CPI data. These factors have contributed to increased demand for silver as a safe-haven asset and alternative investment.

US Fed Rate Cut and its Impact on Silver Price

On the US front, speculation regarding a interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve tends to positively impact silver prices by weakening the US dollar, making silver more attractive to investors.

Market experts anticipate a rate cut during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled from April 30th to May 1st, 2024. This anticipation has been fueled by positive US non-farm data and expectations of favorable US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.

Therefore, the possibility of a rate cut tends to weaken the US dollar, making silver and other commodities more attractive as alternative investments, thus driving up their prices.

Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East

On the geopolitical front, ongoing tensions in the Middle East have bolstered silver prices as investors seek safe-haven assets. However, long-lasting conflicts and geopolitical uncertainties in the region have intensified, leading investors to turn to silver and other precious metals.

This surge in demand has driven silver prices to reach new highs. According to the latest reports, at least 33,207 Palestinians have been killed and 75,933 wounded in Israeli attacks on Gaza since October 7.

It is worth noting that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a scheduled ground offensive in Gaza’s Rafah, despite US opposition. This heightens geopolitical tensions, boosting silver prices as investors seek safe havens, anticipating increased demand amid escalating conflict fears.

Upcoming US CPI Data and its Impact on Silver Price

Another factor impacting silver prices is the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data as stronger-than-expected CPI data could indicate higher inflationary pressures, prompting the Federal Reserve to take a more hawkish stance on monetary policy. Conversely, weaker CPI data could reinforce expectations of a rate cut, leading to further gains in silver prices.

Silver Prices Forecast

 

 Silver currently trades at around $28, showing a slight correction of 0.05%. The commodity is hovering above a pivot point of $27.60, indicating a bullish stance in the market.

Resistance levels are staged at $28.12, $28.64, and a further stretch to $29.24, suggesting potential hurdles for upward momentum. Conversely, support is established at $27.19, followed by $26.66 and $26.15, marking zones where buying interest might reignite.

Technical analysis reveals bullish signals, underscored by recent bullish candle formations, pointing towards continued upside potential beyond the $27.94 mark.

The 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages at $24.63 and $23.62, respectively, further validate silver’s upward trajectory. The conclusion: Silver remains bullish above $27.60, with a downturn below this pivot potentially igniting a sharp sell-off.

Quote source: FX Empire

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gold price forecast wedge breakout points to higher prices
April 9, 2024 5:23 PM +07:00

Pipscollector.com - Gold's breakout from a bull wedge signals a potential rally to higher targets, with buyers showing enthusiasm for further gains.

Gold broke out of a small bull wedge on Wednesday following the U.S. Fed decision on rates. It was a decisive breakout with gold looking like it is ready to head to higher targets. Given the sharp 7.7% rally prior to the wedge formation, a similar level of enthusiasm from buyers may be seen again. Now that the consolidation phase is complete, today’s bullish price action is indicating such a scenario.


Current Leg Up Potential to 2,320

It is possible to see some degree of symmetry between the new leg of the uptrend that started today, and the rapid advance that started before the consolidation wedge formed. This can be one way to estimate a potential target. Since there is no prior price action to consider, key price levels to watch need to be determined by other methods. Symmetry occurs when the price distance in the second leg up relative to the wedge pattern matches the distance in the first leg. Also, when there is a Fibonacci relationship seen in the second leg relative to the first.

The first leg is being measured from the beginning of the sharp move. A price of 2,039 was used in this case. It results in a potential target of 2,320. That target is higher than two earlier Fibonacci confluence zones. However, those two price zones are identified by only two Fibonacci measurements. More confluence would produce a price zone with greater significance. The first Fibonacci zone is from around 2,235 to 2,246, and the second from 2,277 to 2,298.


Signs of Strength

As noted previously, the existing breakout into new highs for gold that began last week has just started. This could be the beginning of a multi-year advance, if not a multi-month advance. That means that market participants will likely need to get aggressive and stay aggressive if they want to participate in these early stages of the advance. Entry setups may not last for long before price moves again. Gold is on track to end this March with its highest monthly closing price on record, which will provide a new confirmation of strength, and on a long-time frame chart.

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banner Market Analysis
Top Analysis
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Forex
September 21, 2023 1:11 PM +07:00


Pipscollector.com - Overbought DXY and oversold EUR/USD for the past 2 months traded maximum at 150 pip ranges for each of the prior 8 weeks.  Spot market EUR/USD Futures contracts since July traded 2 day highs at 300,000 contracts and a fairly normal 150,000 to 200,000 per day contracts. In days long past and never to return, EUR/USD traded 500,000 to 700,000 per day contracts regularly. No such concept as a 300,000 contract day existed.

The absence of spot market contracts found a new home in Currency swaps and interest rate contracts. Japan for example traded 400,000 Currency Swap contracs in 1998 and today well over 2 million while Spot Market contracts since 2015 / 2016  traded on an upswing at barely 200,000 contracts from multi year lows at 35,000.

Japan interest rate contracts in 1998 traded 9,000 per day and today contracts rose to 65,000 and at all time highs. EUR, JPY and DXY are most widely traded while JPY and USD market share account for  74.4% and 71.4%. Most popular are contracts with maturities at 1 year or less. Japan alone accounts for 87 trillion USD in Notional amounts.

Currency Swaps and Interest rate contracts ensured Spot markets traded limited weekly ranges. DXY amd EUR/USD for example traded 100 and 150 pip weeks in each of the past 8 weeks while USD/JPY traded 200 pips.

Anchor currencies must be viewed in total as permanent 200 pip weeks at the maximum and 300 peaks for GBP/JPY and wide rangers, GBP/NZD, EUR/NZD, EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD.

The week

DXY is in the same position as the past 8 weeks as severely overbought at 105.00's and 200 pip ranges from 103.00's to 105.00's.

EUR/USD targets long term at 1.1033 on breaks at 1.0855 and 1.0940 while GBP/USD targets 1.2746 on breaks at 1.2605 and 1.2665. EUR/USD on a break of 1.0940 ranges from 1.0940 to 1.1108 while GBP/USD ranges from 1.2665 to 1.2861.

Economics

Import Prices for all economies remain elevated which means CPI and Inflation also remains high. When Import prices drop then Inflation drops. The month of significant releaes is over except for the BOJ's Producer Prices  next week on Tuesday.

The BOJ's producer prices will answer the question to USD/JPY intervention.

YCC

The Tamura and recent BOJ Nakamura speeches answered the YCC expansion from 0.5 to 2.00 for the 10 year JGB yield as a protection to Inflation. As suspected due to past expansion were derived from Inflation rises.

USD/JPY 146.00's are blocked by the BOJ in a range from 146.42 to 148.43. My view is overbought ay 148.44 to 146.67. Break at powerful 146.00's is required to target 145.76 and 144.87.

AUD/USD next week targets easily 0.6500's while NZD/USD targets 0.6000's.

Best trades are short wide rangers: EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD, EUR/NZD. Further, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY.

AUD/USD and EUR/USD serves as a double trade to GBP/USD while CHF/JPY serves its purpose as a double trade to USD/JPY.

The new permanent condition for currency markets is flattened ranges at barely 200 pip weeks.

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Bitcoin
January 17, 2024 10:55 AM +07:00

Pipscollector - Weekly Crude Oil (WTI) Price Analysis Report

CRUDE OIL FORECAST:

  • Oil prices rebound during the week, but the near-term outlook remains somewhat bearish

  • Uncertainty over crude oil demand and stalled U.S. debt ceiling negotiations create a negative backdrop for energy markets

  • The double-top pattern in WTI’s daily chart signals prices could head lower in the coming days

Pipscollector - Crude oil prices (as measured by West Texas Intermediate front-month futures) experienced a modest decline on Friday, settling near $71.30 per barrel, but closed higher on a weekly basis, ending a four-week losing streak that has been fueled by heightened uncertainty about the demand outlook and non-stop recession talk on Wall Street.

Influence from the US economy

While the U.S. economy has remained resilient and managed to avert a recession so far, market indicators, such as the inversion of the yield curve, signal a downturn is on the way. True, the economic landscape could defy expectations and turn more positive, but recent turmoil in the banking sector has left little room for optimism, complicating the soft-landing narrative.

With the United States possessing the largest GDP worldwide, a contraction of its economy has the potential to significantly curtail global growth, resulting in a decrease in the overall demand for fossil fuels. This, in turn, could adversely impact crude prices, leading to a steep sell-off in cyclical commodities.

The ongoing U.S. debt ceiling impasse is exacerbating the challenges faced by energy markets. If the federal government fails to lift the borrowing cap in time, the Treasury Department could run out of cash to pay its obligations as soon as June 1, setting the stage for a default. This scenario would have catastrophic consequences for the economy and the financial system.

Forecast

It is likely that Democrats and Republicans will manage to secure a deal at the last minute, that’s the nature of politics in Washington. However, such an agreement may only come after markets have begun to convulse and experience significant turbulence.

In the current environment, oil prices could be skewed to the downside, so further losses should not be ruled out. With investor confidence fragile, conditions can turn treacherous quickly and without warning, so traders should remain vigilant and stay tuned to the news, with particular attention to the debt ceiling saga.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

In terms of technical analysis, WTI oil appears to be forging a bearish double-top formation. While the pattern is not yet complete, it may be confirmed soon if prices break below neckline support near the psychological $70.00 level. If this floor is breached, sellers may launch an attack on the $66.00 region. On further weakness, we could see a retest of the 2023 lows.

On the flip side, if prices manage to rebound from current levels, initial resistance lies at $73.80. A successful move above this barrier would invalidate the double top, opening the door for a climb toward $76.50.


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US Dollar
January 9, 2024 2:26 PM +07:00

Pipscollector - Weekly US Dollar (USD) Analysis Report

US DOLLAR WEEKLY FORECAST: BULLISH

  • The US Dollar rose the most over 2 weeks since September
  • Rising Treasury yields continued cooling Fed rate cut bets
  • All eyes turn to the central bank’s preferred inflation gauge
  • DXY broke above the 100-day SMA, broader reversal ahead?

Fundamental Analysis

The US Dollar rallied against its major counterparts this past week. In fact, the DXY Dollar Index rose about 1.9% over the past 2 weeks. That is the best 10-day period for the world’s reserve currency since the middle of September. Let us take a closer look at what happened to the US Dollar and why there could be more strength in store ahead.

For one thing, the US Dollar’s ascent has been met with a similar uptake in front-end Treasury Yields. That is a sign that financial markets are slowly pricing out near-term rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which were aggressively priced ever since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) triggered liquidity and recessionary concerns.

In recent weeks, ebbing financial market volatility, sticky underlying US inflation and what appears to be a still-tight labor market underscored economic resilience amidst the most aggressive monetary tightening cycle in decades. Meanwhile, during a speech on Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed that interest rates might not have to rise as far given recent credit stress.

That said, he noted that he did not yet decide about future tightening and highlighted that the market rate path is much different from the central bank’s forecast. As such, markets are only pricing in about a 25% chance of another rate hike in June. As usual, incoming economic data will continue deciding the fate of monetary policy.

The US Dollar will be closely eyeing the PCE Core Deflator on Friday, due at 12:30 GMT. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is expected to remain unchanged at 4.6% y/y in April. That is not a good sign from the perspective of the central bank. Initial jobless claims will be another interesting print, due at the same time but on Thursday. There may yet be more room to cool near-term rate-cut bets, offering support for the US Dollar.

Technical Analysis

Looking at the daily chart, the US Dollar broke above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This might be an early warning sign that the dominant downtrend since September might be turning. Key resistance appears to be the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 104.11. Clearing that exposes the March high at 105.88. Otherwise, key support is the 100.82 – 101.29 zone.


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