Understanding Inflation and its Global Impact (Part 1)
WHAT IS INFLATION?
Pipscollector.com - Inflation is the rise in prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time, and is often displayed in percentage form. For example, if inflation is 2%, this suggests that prices are (on average) 2% higher than the previous period. Therefore, if a bottle of water cost $1 last year then this year it should be around $1.02. Inflation can result in significant costs to an economy as the purchasing power of individuals fall.
DEFLATION
Deflation is the opposite of inflation where prices fall. This suggests low demand for goods and services and often leads low interest rates. Deflation is atypical amongst developed countries.
STAGFLATION VS HYPERINFLATION
Stagflation occurs when an economy is stagnant (low growth) but inflation is still prevalent. This can occur when external factors impact an economy such as the price of oil.
Hyperinflation is an extremely high rate of inflation within an economy. Hyperinflation can be caused by an increase in money supply which consequently results in increased consumer spending and higher demand for goods and services.
Both deflation and hyperinflation can be detrimental to an economy and can result in higher rates of unemployment and lower growth. This makes the role of central banks critically important to control inflation as a lack of stability may have the potential for destructive penalties.
MEASURING INFLATION
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
This is one of the more common ways of measuring inflation, calculating inflation is based on a basket of goods and services which are often referred to as a ‘cost-of-living index’. Common cost-of-living indexes are the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Price Index (RPI). These measures relate to inflation experienced by consumers on a daily basis. Each central bank faces unique headwinds in selecting appropriate items to include within their inflation calculation.
Core CPI vs Headline CPI:
Two common phrases when dealing with inflation is ‘core’ and ‘headline’ CPI. This differentiating factor between the two terms is quite simple. Core CPI refers to the omission of food and energy prices from the Consumer Price Index while headline CPI includes both food and energy prices.
Producer Price Index (PPI)
The Producer Price Index (PPI) focuses on inflation at the early stages of production which can provide essential information for manufacturers and industry. The chart below shows the historical comparison between the different inflation measures (CPI, PPI and GDP Deflator). It is clear that PPI is the most volatile which can be explained in part by producers being unable to pass on relatable costs to the consumer in difficult periods such as the global financial crisis.
GDP Deflator
Another way to measure inflation is via the GDP deflator which takes into account domestic goods only while CPI and/or RPI includes foreign goods, as well. A second key difference is that the GDP deflator method encompasses all goods and services while CPI and/or RPI only measures the price of goods and services bought by consumers. Because the GDP deflator is not restricted by a fixed basket of goods, it has an advantage over the others.
GDP Deflator = (Nominal GDP/Real GDP) x 100
Each measure has bespoke properties that may appeal to different individuals. Therefore, there is no ‘best’ way to calculate inflation but rather each measure has unique aspects that will be suited for different requirements and applications.
PPI VS CPI VS GDP DEFLATOR
Sources of Inflation
Inflation can begin via many avenues in isolation or combination. Below are a few of the primary sources of inflation that can distress any nation across the globe:
Exchange Rates
A weakening local currency means that more local currency is required to purchase imports. This increased cost gets passed on to the end consumer which can contribute to inflation.
Essential Commodity Prices
Most manufacturers require inputs to produce a certain good. These often come in the form of commodities such as iron ore or oil. If these inputs increase in price due, then those costs can be passed on to consumers and the higher costs are a form of inflation.
Interest Rates
Lower interest rates theoretically lead to more spending by consumers, ultimately resulting in greater demand and cost of goods; which should lead to inflation, all factors held equal.
Government Debt
Increases in government debt may infer that there is a greater potential of a government default, which leads to higher yields on treasury securities to compensate potential investors for the higher risk. The effect this has on the public is that more tax revenue will be allocated to the higher interest payments on government debt obligations which reduces living standards. Businesses in turn increase the prices of goods and services to offset the lessened government expenditures, and this can lead to inflation.
The sources listed above generally fall into two broad categories of inflation which are:
- Demand-Pull Inflation – This type of inflation comes as a result of an increase in aggregate demand inclusive of households, governments, foreign buyers and businesses.
- Cost-Push Inflation – Supply is the driver of inflationary pressure for cost-push inflation. When supply falls due to higher production costs, the outcome is higher final prices for consumers.
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